By Bill Bonnar, SSP International Officer
The Cuban revolution has faced many trials and tribulations since 1959 but nothing compared to the crisis engulfing the country today.
An illegal and aggressive economic siege carried out by the United States has cut off all oil supplies and plunged the country into economic meltdown. It is a blockade designed to cripple the economy and impose the maximum suffering on the Cuban people. The fact that this crime has gone largely unpublicised in the British media is a scandal. Following his humiliation in the hands of Iran, Donald Trump may look towards Cuba for an ‘easy win’. Ships have been massing off the Cuban coast for weeks in the kind of military build up that suggests an invasion. It is clear that Washington is now actively weighing up its options.
However, these are not straightforward. A land invasion is extremely problematic. It would mean airlifting troops into Havana to overthrow the government. Havana is where the Cuban army and security forces are concentrated. These forces are at the heart of the Cuban government and state and will fight. Ultimately they may be defeated but will take a significant number of American troops with them.
As is well known, the United States only likes to engage in safe conflicts where they can bomb their opponents from the air or target them with missiles launched from ships hundreds of miles away. Heaven forbid that they engage face to face with the enemy. The American public doesn’t like the spectacle of US troops being returned in body bags.
The other problem facing Washington is that there is no real political opposition in Cuba. The Cuban government has been very adept at exporting its opposition of the years. This would mean that the US would need to airlift in a puppet government which lacked any real legitimacy either with the Cuban people or the wider international community.
The final nightmare scenario is that if the Cuban government collapsed it would mean that the country itself has collapsed leading to floods of immigrants crossing the Miami Straits heading for Florida. Washington might want to liberate the Cuban people from socialism but not at the expense of them arriving in Miami.
Unlike Iran, Cuba has very few cards. Iran can open or close the Hormiz Straits at will; a powerful bargaining tool. Cuba has no such leverage. If the energy siege continues it is only a matter of time before food stocks dwindle and the people face starvation. Yet to say that Cuba has no leverage is not the full story. It has international solidarity.
Would the world stand by while the American Government attempts to starve a people into submission?
How would this play in America?
Solidarity has already been building with Mexico and others providing much needed supplies. Would the US move to block such aid?
Following the humiliation with Iran; would Trump face further humiliation?
The problem Washington faces is that it wants the Cuban Government to make a deal. Presumably this would involve them voluntarily standing down and handing power over to an American backed regime. If this was the plan it shows an absurd misreading of the Cuban Government. For the government in Havana; sovereignty, the revolution and survival are all the same thing. They will fight to the end to protect these. They are also veterans in dealing with American threats and aggression. From draconian economic sanctions, to the Bay of Pigs invasion; from terrorism to the current situation; they have faced them all and survived.
For this they have relied on international solidarity. From 1960 to 1991 the Soviet Union was a reliable counter balance to the threat from Washington. After the fall of the Soviet Union other countries have rallied round in Latin America and more recent times; China. This solidarity has not gone away.
In 2009 the Scottish Socialist Party sent a delegation to Cuba to mark the 50th anniversary of the revolution and to show our support for Cuba. That support is total and will continue.
This year marks the 65th anniversary of the Bay of Pigs; the last time the US invaded and tried to overthrow the Cuban Government. They failed because the Cuban armed forces were ready for them. They remain ready and will fight.
In the meantime the solidarity movement in Scotland and the rest of Britain is building as awareness grows of Washington’s criminal endeavors.
It is a movement that has never been more needed.